报告题目：On the impact of prior experiences in car following models: model development, computational efficiency, comparative analyses and extensive applications

报告人：曲小波教授

主持人：温惠英教授

时   间：2019年6月29日（周六）上午9:30

地   点：交通大楼604室

欢迎广大师生参加！

                      土木与交通学院

                                                                                       2019年6月25日

摘要：

      A major shortcoming of conventional car following models is that these models only consider current spacing and velocities of the target vehicle and its immediate leading vehicle, without taking into account prior driving actions, even for those from the same driver. In other words, the prior experiences have no influence at all in predicting vehicular movements for the next time step. In this study, we propose a machine-learning-based methodology that is able to take advantage of the high-resolution historical traffic data in the current data-rich era, to predict vehicular movements in an accurate manner with a high computational efficiency for high-resolution, real-time traffic flow prediction, modelling, and vehicle control. The new model has a simple model structure based on a Fixed Radius Near Neighbours (FRNN) search algorithm. We further conduct a comprehensive performance comparison among the proposed model, another similar machine-learning-based model, and a conventional model. The results indicate that the FRNN search algorithm based car following model is superior to the other models in terms of prediction accuracy and is more computational efficient compared to its machine-learning-based counterpart. Some extensive applications of the proposed model are discussed at the end of this paper. 

个人简介：

   曲小波博士，现任瑞典查尔莫斯理工大学建筑与土木工程学院正教授，及城市交通研究中心主任。他分别于新加坡国立大学、清华大学和吉林大学获得博士、硕士及学士学位。研究方向主要为交通流理论及利用交通建模提高交通设施的运行效率。曲教授在交通行业顶级期刊Transportation Research Part A, Part B, Part C, Part E, European Journal of Operational Research等发表论文九十余篇，获得瑞典科技部，澳大利亚基金委，国家研究中心，昆士兰交通厅，新州交通厅等资助500余万欧元。现任世界交通大学交通建模委员会主席，并担任四个著名期刊副主编，包括IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics (IF = 10.387)，ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering，及IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems。迄今，曲教授作为主导师或者唯一导师已经培养了五位博士生毕业，另有五名博士生在读。